Get ready for an exciting Derby season! The race for the top spot is heating up, and we've got an intriguing lineup to discuss. The Derby Dozen is a thrilling mix of contenders, each with their own unique story and potential to shine.
Let's start with the current leader, Paladin, who is owned and trained by an impressive team. This 3-year-old colt has an impressive record, winning all three of his races so far. But here's where it gets controversial: Paladin's win in the Risen Star Stakes raises an interesting question. Can he break the Derby jinx for horses that competed in the Remsen Stakes as 2-year-olds? It's been a tough road for these horses, with no Remsen winner taking the Derby since 1995. However, recent Remsen winners have gone on to win the Belmont Stakes, and Sierra Leone, a runner-up in the 2023 Remsen, had an impressive second-place finish in the Derby and later became the champion 3-year-old male of 2024. So, will Paladin be the one to finally break this streak? Only time will tell.
Now, let's talk about Commandment, who is hot on Paladin's heels. After passing his first two-turn test with flying colors in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Commandment has risen to second place in the rankings. His victory was gritty, and his strong gallop out showed he still had plenty left in the tank. With an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 99 and a top-notch Beyer Speed Figure of 101, Commandment is a force to be reckoned with. Plus, he's proven at Churchill Downs and has an important prep race under his belt, which has produced numerous Derby winners in the past.
Further Ado, owned and trained by Spendthrift Farm, is another exciting contender. This colt broke his maiden by an impressive 20 lengths in his first route at Keeneland, and his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club left some observers wanting more. However, his return in the Tampa Bay Derby will be a true test of his Derby credentials. Can he bounce back from his previous performance and run to his full potential? We'll find out soon!
Nearly, owned and trained by Centennial Farms, is an unbeaten force at Gulfstream Park. This Holy Bull Stakes winner is targeted for the Florida Derby, a grade 1 race that has produced an impressive 26 Kentucky Derby winners. With an easy half-mile breeze at Palm Beach Downs, Nearly is looking sharp and ready for his big race.
Chief Wallabee, owned and trained by Michael and Katherine Ball, just missed out on beating Commandment in the Fountain of Youth. Despite the narrow loss, Chief Wallabee's race was top-rated on the Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph Figures, thanks to his wider trip and lighter weight. This horse has the potential to be among the best in the division, especially if he can handle the demands of his early career.
Class President, owned and trained by WinStar Farm and CHC, is a true battler. After being passed in the stretch of his first two-turn race, the Rebel Stakes, Class President fought back to win by a nose. This victory earned him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and he'll likely make one more stop on his way to Churchill Downs to chase a grade 1 win. His time in the Rebel Stakes was faster than the earlier Honeybee Stakes, and his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures were impressive.
Silent Tactic, owned and trained by John C. Oxley, put on a show in the Rebel Stakes. This late-closing runner had his rivals on the back foot, but Class President proved to be a tough opponent. Despite the loss, Silent Tactic's performance was high-quality, just like his earlier Southwest Stakes victory.
Brant, owned and trained by Zedan Racing Stables, is one of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's top contenders. After winning his debut at Del Mar and taking the Del Mar Futurity, Brant finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's the top-performing 2-year-old still in the Derby trail, and with his flashy gray coat, he's sure to turn heads.
Renegade, owned and trained by Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low, is another Pletcher-trained colt with potential. After winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Renegade is likely headed to the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher gives his stakes horses time between starts and avoids consecutive races after long-distance travel, so Renegade is on a similar work schedule as Nearly.
Canaletto, owned and trained by Magnier, Tabor, and Brook Smith, is set for a showdown with Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby. Despite his rival's experience, Canaletto's talent is undeniable. His maiden victory at Gulfstream was a thing of beauty, showing natural speed and the potential to handle longer races.
Reagan's Honor, owned and trained by West Point Thoroughbreds, posted an impressive time and speed figures in a Fair Grounds allowance race. This front-running style suits Reagan's Honor well, and he's set for a throwdown with top-ranked Paladin in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Blackout Time, owned and trained by BR Thoroughbreds, had a disappointing run in the Rebel Stakes but still holds the final spot in our rankings. This colt showed his potential last year by running second in the Breeders' Futurity. After some time off, Blackout Time is likely to improve with more racing.
The Derby Dozen is a fascinating group, and these horses are sure to provide an exciting season. Who do you think will take the top spot? Let's discuss and see if we can predict the winner!
