Bold claim: Remco Evenepoel should tread carefully in the spring classics because the racing is brutal, and one wrong move can define the season. But here’s the twist: a Belgian pro, Oliver Naesen, openly questions whether Evenepoel should chase Milano-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders, or Paris-Roubaix this year. His message is clear: consider the other races where the risk-to-reward ratio is different before diving into the cobbled classics.
Naesen is blunt about Roubaix: he would definitely stay away. He describes himself as a risk-averse rider who has endured about eleven major crashes, with more than half occurring in Paris–Roubaix. He credits Evenepoel with superior physical strength but argues Naesen’s own technical edge could matter more in these battles. According to Naesen, Evenepoel will likely crash in Roubaix anyway, citing his own experience and the punishing nature of the race.
Naesen, now 35, has a storied career against the likes of Peter Sagan and Greg van Avermaet in the cobbled classics. While he’s finished all 27 monuments he started, his results in the Flemish and Roubaix events show the difficulty: only three Top-10s in his ten attempts at both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, with two notable runner-up finishes at Milano-Sanremo and a strong showing at the Tour of Flanders in 2019.
The veteran recounts a memorable moment from the 2017 Tour of Flanders, when a crash involving Sagan and him near the Oude Kwaremont happened after bikes tangled in crowd jackets. The message remains: even when trying to avoid chaos, the conditions of these races are unpredictable and dangerous.
Regarding San Remo, Naesen argues that it presents its own substantial risk. He notes the bottlenecks near the Cipressa—with bollards and tight lanes—where a mass crash is almost inevitable. While he acknowledges that Evenepoel could win, Naesen emphasizes that the race’s distance and the limited opportunities for a decisive move on the climbs make victory uncertain for a rider with ambitious goals later in the season.
From Naesen’s perspective, Evenepoel’s best course might be the Tour of Flanders. The race offers opportunities to influence the result earlier, based on power and positioning, rather than waiting for long climbs that the best climbers can control. He hints that Evenepoel should tailor his spring strategy to Pogacar’s plans in the Ardennes. If Pogacar competes in Liège, Evenepoel would need top-tier preparation and perhaps a stage race like the Basque Country or Catalunya beforehand. If Pogacar skips Liège, Evenepoel could approach with a lighter build and still leave room for the Tour of Flanders.
Ultimately, Naesen suggests that Evenepoel might be better off focusing on the Tour de France in the summer rather than chasing the Giro d’Italia, given the Giro’s notorious May weather and the immense pressure that comes with racing there. The argument is that a Giro campaign could impose untenable expectations—especially since a disappointing Giro would shadow his spring season and complicate the transition to the Tour.
In Naesen’s view, the Giro could become a double-edged sword: bad weather and high expectations could derail a grand-tour plan, whereas a well-orchestrated signature build toward the Tour de France could maximize Evenepoel’s potential across the entire season. The core takeaway is strategic: for Evenepoel, balancing risk, preparation, and target races is essential, and the spring classics might be better approached with a plan that preserves energy for the big goals later in the year.
What do you think? Should Evenepoel prioritize the Tour of Flanders and a targeted Ardennes build, or is there a compelling case to pursue San Remo and Roubaix to prove himself right away? How would you balance ambition with the realities of crashes and form in the spring classics?
