The escalating prices of tomatoes and onions are set to dampen the festive spirit for many households this Christmas season.
As we approach the holidays, families across the nation are preparing for a surge in food prices, particularly among vegetables, due to worsening dryness affecting agricultural production throughout the country. While the November 2025 Agriculture Sector Survey conducted by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) anticipates a boost in food supply thanks to recent maize harvests and stable fuel and exchange rates that should help maintain inflation at manageable levels, it also highlights concerns about rising prices during this festive month.
CBK reports, "Most respondents predict that seasonal factors tied to December's festivities and increased costs for certain food items, especially vegetables, will create moderate upward pressure on overall inflation." Despite these warnings, the central bank is optimistic, anticipating that inflation will remain below the midpoint of its targeted range due to lower costs for processed foods, stable energy prices, and sustained exchange rate stability.
In fact, Kenya's overall inflation dropped slightly to 4.5 percent in November from 4.6 percent in October, maintaining a level below the target range midpoint of 5±2.5 percent. Core inflation fell to 2.3 percent in November, down from 2.7 percent in October, largely due to lower prices for processed foods like maize flour and sugar. However, non-core inflation has risen to 10.1 percent, up from 9.9 percent in October, primarily driven by increasing prices for vegetables such as tomatoes, onions, and cabbage.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicates that onion prices (both leeks and bulbs) surged by 4.9 percent, marking the most significant increase among fresh produce in November. Although tomato prices slipped by 2.1 percent, they still remain at a nine-month high. Kale (sukuma wiki) prices also climbed by 2.7 percent.
A recent survey conducted by the Star reveals that consumers across the nation are facing severe shortages, with bulb onions now averaging Sh170 per kilogram, peaking at Sh200 in drought-stricken regions like Mombasa, North Eastern Kenya, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, and Turkana. A vegetable vendor at the bustling Kongowea Market in Mombasa shared her struggles in meeting demand, particularly for onions, kale, tomatoes, carrots, and cucumbers.
"I’ve had to turn down numerous orders due to supply issues. My tomato suppliers in Njabini are facing serious challenges, and I’ve had to raise my purchasing price by at least Sh3 per kilo as demand soars," said Salome Makau, a local trader. In Zambezi, Kiambu County, a single tomato now costs Sh15, up from Sh10, while in Nyayo Estate, prices can reach Sh25 each.
Vegetable sellers at Kangemi Market in Nairobi express concern that if the current dry spell continues into early 2026, vegetable prices may return to the highs witnessed in 2023. "We hope that farmers who have recently harvested their main crops, like maize in Trans Nzoia, will plant vegetables as they await the next planting season. This could alleviate the scarcity of onions, tomatoes, and kale," they suggest.
The ongoing shortage is further complicated by reduced local production due to the high costs associated with farming, which yield low returns on investment, and diminished imports from neighboring Tanzania, where adverse climate conditions and multiple failed rainy seasons have severely impacted vegetable yields.
Consumers in Central Kenya, particularly in Nyeri, have begun purchasing spring onions, which have also experienced a price spike due to increased demand. Traditionally priced between Sh50 and Sh60 per kilogram, spring onions are now selling for Sh100 to Sh120.
While some consumers have opted to exclude these once-essential vegetables from their meals, labeling them as "a luxury for the wealthy" due to their soaring prices, others are getting creative in their cooking to adapt. Jane Njeri, a resident of Ndugo Village in Mukurweini sub-county, remarked, "Just two months ago, I could buy a kilogram of red bulb onion for Sh40; now it has tripled, and I can no longer afford even one piece at Sh20."
The central bank's warning coincides with predictions from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), which forecasts a prolonged dry spell and insufficient rainfall across various regions, leading to increasing concerns over food security. Currently, seven counties are experiencing drought alerts, with conditions worsening. The NDMA estimates that by early next year, more than 2.1 million people could face high levels of food insecurity, as most regions are anticipated to receive less than average rainfall this December.
Nine counties, including Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo, and Tana River, are in a critical phase requiring close monitoring due to emerging drought conditions that threaten food security, water availability, and pasture quality. The report notes that counties like Isiolo, Turkana, Makueni, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, and Marsabit are showing a deteriorating trend due to the disappointing performance of the October-November-December (OND) rains.
